Megatrends are a popular way to speak about the future, but they tell more about the specific zeitgeist than about possible futures.
On March 6, 2020, in conjunction with the World Future Day the Finnish “National Foresight Network” organized a “Foresight Friday” at Helsinki. Its topic was “Shaping the Future: Between Continuities and Disruptions”. I had the opportunity to talk about foresight in general (“Working with Futures”) and more specifically about the necessity to complement megatrends with disruptive perspectives like wild cards. Since: Surprise is the new normal! Both presentations are available on Youtube – as parts of a (very long) video of the whole Foresight Friday, including also two other talks: Mikko Dufva (Foresight specialist at SITRA) on “Megatrends 2020 from a Finnish perspective” and Albrecht von Müller (Director, Parmenides Foundation) on “Mastering Complexity: New Methodological Approaches for Policy Making”. During my short stay at Helsinki, Prof. Sirkka Heinonen (Research Director in the Finland Futures Research Centre at the University of Turku) took an interview (audio-podcast) with me on Risks and Surprises in the VUCA World.