Post Corona Scenarios

In 2017 the initiative group D2030 constructed scenarios for the future of Germany with the time horizon 2030. We generated them in an extensive participatory process with hundreds of participants, several workshops and a final conference. A consistency analysis of 33 key factors with 149 future projections resulted in a set of eight scenarios. In the end, we combined them into four higher-level scenarios – see Rethinking Germany. At the beginning of April, we put the existing scenarios to a “Corona stress test”. 117 experts took part in an extensive survey with a new assessment of all the 149 future projections. The results were encouraging. Most of the experts believe that the new normality after the crisis will not be a prolongation of the old normality. About 73% of the experts are rather optimistic. In their view, the likelihood has shifted from the scenario “Acceleration in the existing track” to the “New horizon” scenario: more focus on community and cooperation, on public welfare and sustainability, combined with a partially increasing role of the state, and support for the EU. The opposite group comprises about 23% of the experts, they expect mostly a sharpened crisis and a development in direction of the “Back to old borders” scenario: preservation by separation, back to traditional values in the safe limits of the nation state.

More details on the Website of D2030 (only in German language).

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